Elijah Green
Green is a classic physical toolsy high schooler. He has
light tower raw, a bazooka arm and a plus runner, all while being an insane
physical specimen at 6’3” 225 lbs. Similar to a lot of these type of players,
there’s serious hit tool concerns. Per FanGraphs, he has more swing and miss
than balls in play during the showcase circuit. This is a clear problem, but
this feels more of a swing path issue rather than a pitch recognition problem,
and so I can live with it. From a visual standpoint, his swing is steep and
looks like he will have issues with pitches up in the zone but I’m trusting
that the team that drafts him can modify his swing to be at least passable up in
the zone, and I think there is enough precedent and good hitting coaches who
can do this. From my point of view, which is mainly watching video and clips
and then reading about how the player did, it’s hard to evaluate hit tools well
and players like this I will always have a hard time properly evaluating from
my desk. Most of what I have seen has been comments about the bat path though,
so I think it’s safe to assume he has fairly good plate discipline, so if the
fixable bat path issue gets figured out, he’s going to go off. Best case
scenario, Green will make multiple All Star appearances and be one of the
dominant players in the league, but there is a ton of variance here and I
understand if a team doesn’t want to allocate a large portion of their bonus
pool with so much variance. That said, teams with confidence in their PD staff will
be rewarded for taking a risk.
Side note: One thing I’ve gotten a little annoyed with is
the people putting Green in the 9-15 range based on the hit tool. I think that if
you have this much concern about the hit tool, he should be in the 30-40 range
(wherever Kendall/Fabian 2020 went). If you think he has some chance to hit,
there is no reason not to put him in the top 3-5. There’s no middle ground here
in my opinion.
Jace Jung
I think there may be some prospect fatigue here between him
and his brother before him. Simply put, Jung is one of the best hitters in
college baseball presently, along plus power. It’s not super flashy, he just
has excellent feel for hitting and there’s not a whole lot more to say about
him. The only blemish is his subpar numbers on the Cape, but it was only 8
games so I don’t really care. Jung is the best hitter in college baseball and
deserves to be a top 5 pick, even though he projects as a 2B/3B.
Druw Jones
I was pretty locked in on Termarr being my number one guy,
but Druw Jones’s defense gives him an edge for me here, as he will be a plus
defender at a premium position. His athleticism and arm (plus) are so
impressive that he may get a tryout at shortstop in pro ball. At the plate,
there’s no real weaknesses here, as he has plus power, swing decisions, and bat
speed. There’s not a whole lot to write out, he’s just extremely impressive.
One thing in particular I like about him is that he’s able to tap into his raw
power on pitches at the top of the zone due to his bat path being relatively
flat. This lets him hit with power against pitches anywhere in the zone. There’s
a little stiffness in the swing, but he has the best raw tools in this class
and deserves that number one spot.
Brooks Lee
Coming into this season I was cautiously optimistic on Lee. Coming
out of high school in 2019, Lee was a highly touted power-driven shortstop. He
missed 2020 due to Covid, and then last season had a solid season with a
worrisome BB/K ratio, that carried on through his summer on the Cape. Things
have gotten better on that front this season and he’s been able to keep the
power output, where he is one of the nation’s leaders in average exit velocity.
I think I am a little lower on the hit tool than consensus, but it does seem
like he has a flexible swing that can cover the upper third of the zone and tap
into his power.
Defensively, I’m projecting Lee as a third baseman. Lee is barrel chested and completely filled out physically at 6’2”, 205
lbs. This isn’t a shortstop body. He has a plus arm but just doesn’t have the
mobility for short, and with his injury history I am bearish on it getting
better. That’s ok though because he still will be able to be an above average
defender at third.
He makes good swing decisions and has some pop, but I think he'll end up in the 15-30 range on my board.
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