Thursday, June 9, 2022

Random Notes on Draft Prospects Part Two (Cam Collier, Jett Williams, Brandon Barreira, Carter Young, Zach Neto, Jackson Ferris)

Cam Collier

Cam is one of those guys whose feel for hitting really stands out. He has quick bat speed and plus raw power that he’s able to tap into given the advanced hit tool. Collier doesn’t sell out for power, it’s a fairly flat bat path that enables him to hit the ball anywhere in the zone. His swing can be a little funky at times; he has really low hands and works inside out which limits his pull power, but his feel for hitting is very advanced and is something that I want to bet on.

Defensively, he’s physically maxed out right now and I haven’t seen enough video of him to really say if he will stick at third or if he requires a move to 1B. His defense really isn’t a calling card for this profile though and he’ll hit enough for either position, so I am not worried, and it doesn’t detract from his overall value.

He reclassified to be in this draft by graduating high school early and then enrolling in Chipola JC for this season, making him one of the youngest players in the class. That said, he is an early physical developer and thus isn’t as projectable physically as it may seem from an age perspective.

In summary, Collier is a prime example of someone not just with tools but real baseball skills, and everything about him screams big leaguer. I haven’t seen enough of Jackson Holiday to really make a comparison, but I may end up having Collier over Holiday even though Holiday has the clear positional advantage.

Jett Williams

Williams is an undersized guy at 5’8 180 but with one of my favorite swings in the class. Plus bat speed with a compact swing that has some loft and can reach all parts of the zone. He has average raw power but is able to tap into all of it due to bat path and plate awareness. Plus runner that will be able to stick at shortstop, super twitchy athlete. His ceiling maybe capped due to his stature, but I’m not discounting him here, he feels like a guy whose game power outplays his raw. Jett slots in right behind Holliday and Collier in that second tier of high school hitters behind the big 3 (Jones/Green/Johnson). Really excited about him, think there is a lot of positive traits here.

Brandon Barreira

With Lesko going down with TJ, Barreira might be the first pitcher drafted, and I can see why. He has the best command, a deep repertoire, and a nice frame, but I struggle to see a true plus pitch, and I think the fastball shape is pretty generic. The slider has the best shape of the offspeed, a two plane breaker with late movement and good depth, and I think his changeup plays well shape wise with the fastball. But again, despite the premium velocity I don’t see Barreira missing a ton of bats with his fastball given the current shape and arm slot. Delivery is a bit stiff, lands upright and relies a lot on arm strength. There’s positives here, but nothing that screams top ten pick and I would let him go to college.

Carter Young

Young has taken a small step forward approach wise, with his walk rate improving a few ticks with the K% holding steady at 30%, but the cons outweigh the positives at this point. His approach is well below average, aided by a very steep swing that leads to a ton of strikeouts. It’s worth noting here that there is a difference between Jud Fabian and Carter Young, despite their similarities as big school hitters with funky swings. Like Fabian, Young has a steeper swing, but Fabian only had 1 year running a near 30% K%, whereas Young has 3, and Fabian ran a higher walk rate by about 5%. I’ve been trying to stay away from looking at stats here, but I think it’s important to contextualize the visual look of the swing. It's a 30 bat, with some power but he won’t be able to tap into it. Defensively, he has great actions and is probably the only college infielder that can play shortstop, so there is value, I just think that so much has to go right here for him to even be a viable bench infielder that it’s hard for me to see him as a top 1-2 round player.

Zach Neto

Ton of moving parts going on during the swing but makes hard contact consistently so no real issues there for me. Above average approach that took a step forward this season. I am a little concerned with the steepness in the swing, hasn’t been an issue in small school baseball but may take a little to adjust in pro ball. Performed on the Cape though, so not as concerned. Defensively, he’s not a great athlete and is a fringe shortstop, think he ends up at third due to an above average arm. Obviously there’s more pressure on the bat, but Neto is a nice player that fits in the Top 50.

Jackson Ferris

Ferris reminds me of Maddux Bruns from last season, though with 55-60 stuff rather than 60-70 stuff. Ferris has the prototypical high school pitcher frame, strong physical build with sloping shoulders. He throws from a high ¾ arm slot and has a plus fastball with ride up in the zone, clocking in around 90-94 T97, and a 12-6 curve with plus depth, but loses feel for it at times and thus loses its sharpness. Throws a change occasionally, but not featured much. I really like Ferris, and while he may take more player development help than the other HS pitchers, if matched with the right team (like the Dodgers) he could explode. 


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