Adam Maier was the subject of my first blogpost I wrote here. Now that we've reached the end of the season, I wanted to recap how that prediction looked, and also give a full report on his skillset. Earlier this year, I wrote:
"It’s a stretch to say Maier is a first round arm, but he has one of the best sliders in the class to go along with a couple above average offerings. He’s a ¾ arm slot sinker guy with a fairly aggressive arm action but has enough command to start. Changeup has late fade and tumble, it’s a good out pitch against lefties. Has been up to 97, but velo dropped quick during his starts in the Cape, so this is something to watch. I have him projected as a #4 starter with high leverage reliever utility if the velocity doesn’t sustain. The teams that are more progressive in their pitch sequencing (letting Maier throw 40%+ sliders) should be in on him early and I think would be a great fit for him."
Unfortunately, Maier got hurt at the start of the season and was not able to show off his stuff the way he needed to for him to be a first round pick. From a track record perspective, he has a difficult story. He started his career at the University of British Columbia in 2020, where his first season was cut short due to Covid and his 2021 season was cancelled. The only pitching he did in 2021 was on the Cape, where he threw 25.2 innings with a 4.56 ERA and a 27/9 K/BB ratio. This spring with Oregon, he threw only 15.2 innings for a 4.02 ERA and 19/6 K/BB ratio. It is a thin statistical track record to go off of, which should make him line up very differently from board to board.
From a stuff perspective, nothing really changed from the preseason report. To summarize, he has a heavy sinker that does not miss a ton of bats, but gets a ton of ground balls (68% per Synergy). The concern that he is not able to hold velocity deep into a start remains due to his injury, and this piece of the puzzle is the biggest question mark for him. His slider sits in the 2900-3100 RPM range and is one of the best sliders in all of college baseball. The movement profile on the pitch is a bit "old-school," as it has a ton of vertical break as opposed to the new sweeper sliders. It's a true plus pitch now that projects to be double plus as he throws harder. Maier's changeup isn't as impressive as the slider but it has heavy tumble and fade and is plus in it's own right. It's frustrating looking through Maier's pitch usage chart, where he is throwing 65% fastballs and only 25% sliders and 7% changeups. While I like his fastball, this is clearly a case of a head coach having zero clue what he is doing, and once he gets into pro ball I expect that this will change to something more like 45%/35%/20% FB/SL/CH usage, and I think this poor pitch choice is why Maier's H/9 is not as dominant as one might expect from an arsenal such as his.
The one new aspect that I wanted to touch on was a cutter that was not in the original report. Per Synergy, he hadn't thrown it while he was on the Cape, but did this past spring. Maier only through 5 cutters this spring, so I hesitated to include it in the report, but since it is a pitch that fits well into his arsenal and the general pitching landscape is trending towards the pitch, I think it's worth bringing up. It's a present 30 for me right now, not a ton of feel for the pitch but with slight downer shape similar to the slider. The cutter won't be an impact pitch for him, but having something similar as his slider but harder makes it difficult for the hitter to sit on his slider and gives the cutter big league utility, which is why I am double projecting here.
In summary, I think Maier has a lot of outs to be a starter due to repertoire depth and reaches the bar for command. He may be able to be fast tracked to the big leagues if he is put in a reliever only role, which may not be a terrible idea due to his injury concerns, but it would sacrifice a lot of potential that is impossible to get back. Maier has three present average pitches or above with potential to be plus, and an intriguing cutter. The medical issues are a legit concern, but I would take Maier over guys like Prielipp and Whisenhunt, who for some reason are rated far higher by many boards despite similar concerns over missed time (less of a concern with Whisenhunt).
Role: #4 starter, with fallback as high leverage reliever
Pitch | Velocity | Present | Future |
Fastball | 89-93 T97 | 50 | 60 |
Changeup | 82-86 | 45 | 60 |
Cutter | 84-88 | 30 | 50 |
Slider | 78-82 | 60 | 70 |
Control | | 40 | 45 |
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