Riley Kelly-RHP-Tustin HS (California)

Riley Kelly is a spring pop up prospect in California, which is a unique demographic given how many scouting resources are allocated to the state. Going into his senior year of high school, he had zero college offers and was sitting 84-87 while being the quarterback of the football team. After quitting football, he's now sitting 88-92, is committed to UC Irvine, and has had tons of scouts and AGM's in attendance for his games. It will be interesting to see how teams value his skillset and background and if anyone will give him enough to forgo college, and if he makes it to campus, will he go into the transfer portal at some point, because his recruiting timeline was so short.

Physically, Kelly is a big guy, currently 6'4" 200, high waisted with broad shoulders and solid through the chest. He has some physical projection left, but is fairly physically mature for someone who is on the younger side of the class (18.2 on draft day). A few outlets classify him as an above average athlete which I think is wrong (assuming there's some bias of football -> athlete here); he's more of a fringe athlete for me. My general concern on the athleticism side is how limited the rotation in the hips is and a lack of scap retraction. These are not glaring concerns and I am mostly looking past them due to the stuff, but are worth noting for player development purposes. On the delivery side, it's fairly clean. Medium leg lift, crossfire delivery that closes off front half slow at start of delivery but gets down the mound well, average arm speed. Throws from a 3/4 arm slot, which in combination with the crossfire delivery add some deception. Overall, a solid set of mechanics, with my only concerns coming from the athleticism side with the lack of hip and shoulder mobility.

The conversation about Kelly pitch mix starts with his curveball, which is easily plus presently and might be the best curve in this years class. It sits 76-80 with a spin rate in the 2900-3100 range, with late two plane break and a ton of movement. Will occasionally get loopy, but most times it is a power pitch that is nearly impossible to make contact with. He pairs the curve with a fastball that lacks velocity (87-91) but makes up for it by having high spin rates and generally good shape. Kelly has around 2400-2600 RPM on the fastball and thus can work up in the zone with it, but he throws from a steeper angle that makes it slightly less effective, but still projecting this to be a plus pitch. Right now there really isn't a third pitch, he showed a changeup in warmups (83 MPH, 1200 RPM) that had some fade, but does not use it in game. He is effective at killing spin which makes me want to project on it, and the present 20 grade on it reflects more on where his development path currently is and how little his usage is. I'm triple projecting here because I think that it says a lot that he can throw high spin rate stuff, and also a low spin rate change. Kelly has solid command over his pitches for a high schooler, with most likely fringe average command at peak. One issue command wise he will run into is how much movement the curveball has makes it nearly impossible to consistently throw it in the zone. This is a good problem to have, but just something to note.

In summary, Kelly is an exciting prospect. The physical tools that some late bloomers have aren't really there, but the pure baseball skills that matter more are clearly present. Clear starter traits dependent on developing a third pitch. Fallback role as a high leverage reliever. Not really sure where his bonus demands may lie, the college commitment is presumably not that strong, would think a 500-700k offer would be enough. 

Pitch	Velocity	Present	Future
Fastball	88-92 T93	50	60
Changeup	83	20	45
Curveball	76-80	60	70
Slider
Control		30	45

Source for the background info:

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/jaden-noot-riley-kelly-continue-draft-rises-with-strong-outings/