Where Does Ben Joyce Fit In?

Ben Joyce, the flame throwing right hander at Tennessee, has been another difficult player to value in the draft this year. Similar to Jacob Berry, I think he offers an interesting conversation of modern player valuation, as the value of relievers has changed over the past few years. 

Let's start with a report on Joyce. At this point, we all know what he does. He has the best fastball in college, and quite honestly it is one of the best in all of baseball today. His primary offspeed is his slider, which has a good shape to it with plus lateral movement, but it's relatively slow (low 80's) and he does not have enough feel for it yet. Unsurprisingly, Joyce's command is not very refined, but at the velocity he is throwing it's good enough.

Due to his otherworldly stuff, Joyce is a fan favorite on Twitter. However, this production on the field doesn't quite matchup with what Twitter says. He's only thrown 26 innings this year, which seems low relative to the media coverage, with a 45/9 K/BB ratio and 0 saves. I bring up the 0 saves number because I think there are some red flags here that Tennessee isn't having a guy who throws 100 MPH consistently close out games. It also isn't the case that they are sabermetrically inclined and want to put him in more high leverage situations rather than just saves, he's thrown a lot of midweek games. 

Most of the appeal of drafting Joyce in the first round is that he can very quickly pitch in the big leagues, ideally this season. Instead of trading for a reliever at the deadline, you can grab him in the draft and not give up anything, aside from opportunity cost. I think this scenario working out well is highly unlikely, to the disdain of PitchingNinja junkies. No matter how well Joyce's stuff is (which is essentially 1.5 pitches), having close to 0 high leverage innings under your belt and then getting pushed to the majors is a recipe for disaster, and if you are a contending team I would hope you have better minor league depth. 

While I love Joyce's stuff, contending teams that would want his great stuff should have the depth to not need him. If you are relying on him to save your bullpen, as a player development group you have failed. Teams that go in 3-5 year boom/bust cycles may want Joyce, but if you have the ability to develop pitchers from anywhere, the opportunity cost of drafting Joyce in the first round is just too high, in my opinion.

Again, it's important to not get bogged down with the minuses. This dude has the best fastball since Stephen Strasburg, and if he gains more feel for the slider, he is going to provide Chapman level production out of the pen. If he develops a changeup, he has an outside shot of being a 4 and dive starter, but his present stuff is so good and valuable to a bullpen that I doubt the team that drafts him tries to develop it. Also, from a Kelly variance perspective, Joyce is quite valuable, since it's extremely likely he makes the major leagues. I just think drafting him with the expectation that he pitches this October is misguided. Hopefully the Dodgers take him and make me look stupid.