Age at Draft (2022): 21.0
Max Wagner is a draft eligible
sophomore who has benefited from MLB pushing the draft back into July. Instead
of being old for the 2023 draft, he is relatively young for the 2022 draft
(though obviously teams control for the age/college year differential). Wagner
was a relative unknown for most of the scouting community. I was on him rather
early, but only because Max and I are from Green Bay and I like paying
attention to local draft prospects, not because I am a scouting wizard who
foresaw the season he was going to have. After a rough freshman season, Wagner exploded
with a .369/.496/.852 slash line with 27 HR’s and a 45/51 BB/K rate. He has now
put himself in draft conversation, with some extra leverage of having another
draft year.
Offensively, the
conversation starts with his power, where he has plus raw power and will most
likely hit into all of it. He has above average bat speed and is able to
elevate. One particularly impressive thing with Wagner is how strong he is at
hitting pitches up in the zone. This is a trait that will suit him well in pro
ball, as he is able to catch up to those rising fastballs that most hitters
have issues with. The concern with Wagner right now is his K%, which is around
25%. This is undeniably high and why it makes it hard to justify a high draft
pick on him but given this is his first true college year and he has a non-catastrophic
chase rate (21%, Synergy), I’m willing to bet on this getting better, at least
from an analytical standpoint. From a visual evaluation look, even though he
may strike out a little too much, he more than makes up for it from a quality
of contact standpoint due to an impressive bat path. There are a lot of positive
traits here and I do not want to nitpick.
As a quick aside, on the
point where he crushes pitches high in the zone, I wonder how long that will
create a significant edge. We’ve been seeing more and more teams moving in on
the sinker/cutter/slider arsenal pitchers, whereas in the last four years it
was the vertical fastball/curve repertoire being in vogue. I still think the four
seamer up is the dominant strategy, but it’s always worth thinking about where pitching strategy is going
Defensively, he’s a
fringe athlete that is filled out physically, so he’s a tweener 3B who will
most likely get exposed to first over the course of his career. During his
prime, I project him to be able to handle the hot corner, as he has a solid arm
and makes the routine plays, but this is a bat first profile. Of course,
scouting fielders from video is tricky, even if Synergy is quite good, so I
could be underrating his fielding ability, but based on the body type and my
looks I’m comfortable in putting a fringe average grade on his defense.
Overall, Max is not just
a flash in the pan college hitter. He has plus raw power to go along with a well-defined
bat path and plate discipline. There are some strikeout issues that bring down
the pure hit tool grade, but nothing that concerns me all that much. Being a
cold weather bat, there is some chance of the hit tool improving substantially
more than expected. With the glut of talented high schoolers this year, seeing
if you can save money with Wagner by drafting him in the first round and targeting
some of the high schoolers later is a strategy worth considering, and would
give your draft portfolio some unusual upside when drafting a college hitter early.
FV: 40+
Bonus Rec: 1,500,000-1,750,000
Tool Breakdown:
|
Tool |
Present |
Future |
|
Hit |
30 |
45 |
|
Power |
30 |
60 |
|
-Raw Power |
55 |
60 |
|
Run |
40 |
40 |
|
Throw |
50 |
55 |
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