Top Early Round Money-Saving College Hitters

Given how much talent there is in the high school ranks this year, it is particularly important to think about ways to give your draft pool the most upside possible. One strategy is to draft a college player underslot, and use the savings to accumulate high schoolers above slot later in the draft. This is a tricky thing to do properly, because you do not want to punt on your first round pick, which is where most of the value comes from, and you also can't fully predict which high schoolers there will be to choose from in the later rounds. I wanted to write about a couple of the top college hitters outside the first round on most big boards that should be in contention for a first round pick as a money saver. I'm ranking these players based on two components, overall potential and round up traits. Something that would be considered an "round up" trait is being a cold weather hitter, where they have less reps and in theory are slightly behind the development curve in comparison to guys in the south. These traits give the overall draft pool some of the positive convexity you get when drafting a standard first round talent. The players listed here are roughly in the 40-80 range of most public big boards.

Josh Kasevich-Oregon

The prototypical college shortstop is very boring, but Kasevich is exciting. Kasevich brings a plus hit tool and above average raw to the table while being a capable defender at short, but hasn't shown his power in game. Kasevich has some late bloomer traits that make him interesting and have me rounding up on his power. Taking a cursory look at his spray chart, he's gone from an oppo hitter to more of a pull hitter, indicating that he can make adjustments. I have him with a first round grade, but industry consensus has him more of a second rounder.

Max Wagner-Clemson

His report is already on the site so I won't get into him too much, but he is a cold weather bat with some specifically interesting traits (impressive ability to do damage on pitches up in the zone) that give him intriguing upside. Lack of experience outside of this year is scary.

Dalton Rushing-Louisville

Rushing isn't a great defender behind the plate, but with the ABS coming at the time when he'd make his big league debut I'm not so concerned. He was hidden behind Henry Davis so he does not have much of a track record, but he performed well on the Cape and continued to a strong junior season. He has a hulking frame and has plus raw power, that he has no issue tapping in to because of his average hit tool. Most guys that look like him have contact problems, and while he runs a strikeout percentage that is a little hot (20%), he has a good approach at the plate. It's a good set of tools and while there may not be a ton of defensive value to bank on, you are getting a power hitter with real feel to hit

Sterlin Thompson-Florida

I might be cheating here as Pipeline has him #27, but I've seen him more in the 35-50 range so I'm including him here. Thompson has a good feel for hitting with enticing raw power that hasn't fully been developed yet. No real defensive home, has played 2B/3B/COF, don't love his actions in the dirt so most likely in the oufield for me. No real round up traits here as he is a Florida kid, but it's a hit over power profile in a power hitter frame so I think there is exciting upside here that hasn't shown up in the box score.

Cayden Wallace-Arkansas

Wallace played a full freshman season, unlike Max Wagner, and did fairly well hitting .279 with 14 HR, but ran a high K%. Wallace is a fringy hitter with big power and a physically filled out frame and a plus arm. Wallace and Wagner have pretty much the same profile, but I think there is more certainty that Wallace is a fringe hitter whereas Wagner has more variance.

Max Wagner-Clemson-3B

Age at Draft (2022): 21.0

Max Wagner is a draft eligible sophomore who has benefited from MLB pushing the draft back into July. Instead of being old for the 2023 draft, he is relatively young for the 2022 draft (though obviously teams control for the age/college year differential). Wagner was a relative unknown for most of the scouting community. I was on him rather early, but only because Max and I are from Green Bay and I like paying attention to local draft prospects, not because I am a scouting wizard who foresaw the season he was going to have. After a rough freshman season, Wagner exploded with a .369/.496/.852 slash line with 27 HR’s and a 45/51 BB/K rate. He has now put himself in draft conversation, with some extra leverage of having another draft year.

Offensively, the conversation starts with his power, where he has plus raw power and will most likely hit into all of it. He has above average bat speed and is able to elevate. One particularly impressive thing with Wagner is how strong he is at hitting pitches up in the zone. This is a trait that will suit him well in pro ball, as he is able to catch up to those rising fastballs that most hitters have issues with. The concern with Wagner right now is his K%, which is around 25%. This is undeniably high and why it makes it hard to justify a high draft pick on him but given this is his first true college year and he has a non-catastrophic chase rate (21%, Synergy), I’m willing to bet on this getting better, at least from an analytical standpoint. From a visual evaluation look, even though he may strike out a little too much, he more than makes up for it from a quality of contact standpoint due to an impressive bat path. There are a lot of positive traits here and I do not want to nitpick.

As a quick aside, on the point where he crushes pitches high in the zone, I wonder how long that will create a significant edge. We’ve been seeing more and more teams moving in on the sinker/cutter/slider arsenal pitchers, whereas in the last four years it was the vertical fastball/curve repertoire being in vogue. I still think the four seamer up is the dominant strategy, but it’s always worth thinking about where pitching strategy is going

Defensively, he’s a fringe athlete that is filled out physically, so he’s a tweener 3B who will most likely get exposed to first over the course of his career. During his prime, I project him to be able to handle the hot corner, as he has a solid arm and makes the routine plays, but this is a bat first profile. Of course, scouting fielders from video is tricky, even if Synergy is quite good, so I could be underrating his fielding ability, but based on the body type and my looks I’m comfortable in putting a fringe average grade on his defense.

Overall, Max is not just a flash in the pan college hitter. He has plus raw power to go along with a well-defined bat path and plate discipline. There are some strikeout issues that bring down the pure hit tool grade, but nothing that concerns me all that much. Being a cold weather bat, there is some chance of the hit tool improving substantially more than expected. With the glut of talented high schoolers this year, seeing if you can save money with Wagner by drafting him in the first round and targeting some of the high schoolers later is a strategy worth considering, and would give your draft portfolio some unusual upside when drafting a college hitter early.

FV: 40+

Bonus Rec: 1,500,000-1,750,000

Tool Breakdown:

Tool	Present	Future
Hit	30	45
Power	30	60
-Raw Power	55	60
Run	40	40
Throw	50	55

Where Does Ben Joyce Fit In?

Ben Joyce, the flame throwing right hander at Tennessee, has been another difficult player to value in the draft this year. Similar to Jacob Berry, I think he offers an interesting conversation of modern player valuation, as the value of relievers has changed over the past few years. 

Let's start with a report on Joyce. At this point, we all know what he does. He has the best fastball in college, and quite honestly it is one of the best in all of baseball today. His primary offspeed is his slider, which has a good shape to it with plus lateral movement, but it's relatively slow (low 80's) and he does not have enough feel for it yet. Unsurprisingly, Joyce's command is not very refined, but at the velocity he is throwing it's good enough.

Due to his otherworldly stuff, Joyce is a fan favorite on Twitter. However, this production on the field doesn't quite matchup with what Twitter says. He's only thrown 26 innings this year, which seems low relative to the media coverage, with a 45/9 K/BB ratio and 0 saves. I bring up the 0 saves number because I think there are some red flags here that Tennessee isn't having a guy who throws 100 MPH consistently close out games. It also isn't the case that they are sabermetrically inclined and want to put him in more high leverage situations rather than just saves, he's thrown a lot of midweek games. 

Most of the appeal of drafting Joyce in the first round is that he can very quickly pitch in the big leagues, ideally this season. Instead of trading for a reliever at the deadline, you can grab him in the draft and not give up anything, aside from opportunity cost. I think this scenario working out well is highly unlikely, to the disdain of PitchingNinja junkies. No matter how well Joyce's stuff is (which is essentially 1.5 pitches), having close to 0 high leverage innings under your belt and then getting pushed to the majors is a recipe for disaster, and if you are a contending team I would hope you have better minor league depth. 

While I love Joyce's stuff, contending teams that would want his great stuff should have the depth to not need him. If you are relying on him to save your bullpen, as a player development group you have failed. Teams that go in 3-5 year boom/bust cycles may want Joyce, but if you have the ability to develop pitchers from anywhere, the opportunity cost of drafting Joyce in the first round is just too high, in my opinion.

Again, it's important to not get bogged down with the minuses. This dude has the best fastball since Stephen Strasburg, and if he gains more feel for the slider, he is going to provide Chapman level production out of the pen. If he develops a changeup, he has an outside shot of being a 4 and dive starter, but his present stuff is so good and valuable to a bullpen that I doubt the team that drafts him tries to develop it. Also, from a Kelly variance perspective, Joyce is quite valuable, since it's extremely likely he makes the major leagues. I just think drafting him with the expectation that he pitches this October is misguided. Hopefully the Dodgers take him and make me look stupid.

In the Weeds (Again) with Jud Fabian

Having done this fairly seriously for a few years now, and writing about the draft portfolio/roster construction for two, I think that Jud Fabian has been the trickiest player for me to evaluate and value. Earlier last month, I wrote a blog where I was extremely confident that he was a top 10 pick. Today, I am a less sure.

First, a quick update about his tools. Nothing about his upside has changed in a month; his plusses are still clear. Where I have gotten more concerned about is his K% and (this may sound unscientific) his batting average, which is concerningly low even if the stat is flawed. Looking at SEC numbers only, Fabian is currently hitting .162 with a 36% K%, which is quite concerning. In my original writeup, I was looking at his overall stat line, where he looks far better, and assuming it was roughly the same in SEC play, but clearly I was being too lazy. So while his strengths (power, defense, bat speed) are still evident, I was too optimistic on the improvement of his hit tool. However, I don't want to write him off completely, and so I want to try to think about what situations would justify a high Jud Fabian pick.

Bonus Pool Standpoint 

While I am not satisfied with my work on the Kelly Criterion, I think one part of the research that helped me was being able to think about variance in relation to bet/signing bonus size. Essentially, the higher the proportion of our bonus pool money spent on one player, the less variance we should want. This is pretty obvious, but within this framework it is essentially impossible to draft a high school pitcher within the first ten picks, a viewpoint that was not common pre-analytics revolution (and still isn't I guess, Jackson Jobe and Frank Mozzicato were both top ten picks last season). So, for first round picks we do not want to be taking gambles and in general should be taking "safe" players. Note that safe does not necessarily mean college player or have a 70 hit tool. I consider someone like James Triantos a safe draft pick because he has a plus hit tool (which is fairly sticky) to go along with average power and solid defense, so he has no real caps. 

When looking at Fabian through the "Kelly" lens, it's hard to make the case that offers the same or better upside with less variance than other players in the top half of the draft. At this point though, I think that players such as DeLaughter, Cross, and to some extent Dylan Beavers have just as high of an upside as Fabian while being less volatile, and would be more comfortable investing a high pick in them over Jud.

Team Specific PD

While Fabian is certainly a risky player, in some cases risky players can be less so due to a strong Player Development department, and can thus justify a high draft pick for Fabian. This is once again obvious, but very hard to quantify and if you have the right group now, there is no guarantee you will in the future as there is a lot of turnover in these positions. Looking through the usual suspects (LAD, HOU, etc), I don't evidence of them developing guys with concerning K%'s, with LAD most noticeably drafting one (Jeren Kendall) and whiffing on him. A more complete study than a cursory ten minute glance is in order though.

Jacob Berry Report and General Thoughts on Valuing DH Type Prospects

Jacob Berry has one of the strongest statistical resumes amongst college players in this years' draft class. After posting a .332/.439/676 slash line with 17 HR and a 33/58 BB/K ratio at Arizona State (a fairly hitter friendly environment), he transferred to LSU, where he has kept up his dominance despite a nagging finger injury. With this track record, it's easy to envision him as a top 5 pick, but he has some warts that make him a unique player to value, and make for an interesting discussion on roster construction and where baseball may be headed.

To start, he does exactly what you want offensively. Berry has an immaculate swing that is perfectly optimized for power and contact. There is loft in the swing, but his swing isn't so steep that he can't reach pitches up in the zone. From the looks I have seen, he has very few holes where pitchers can target. He makes strong swing decisions, and has a plus feel for hitting overall. In terms of pure hit tools, he's in the Jung/Termarr/Lee class of hitters.

Now lets move to the warts. The first one typically wouldn't be, but it is because of the second. From his stat line, Berry looks like a prototypical masher with great plate discipline, but his raw power is not all that impressive. It's above average raw, but he relies a lot on his feel for contact to clear the necessary power bar for his position, which is 1B/DH. Most of the 1B/DH types are the opposite; they have big raw power and no feel to hit. In general I tend to think that hit tools are fairly sticky, so I'm less worried about Berry and think his hit tool will let him get enough power, but this is a concern worth vocalizing.

The more pressing concern with Berry is how bad his defense is. Going into the season, the consensus view was that he was a 1B/3B that was most likely ending up at 1B, but now I think it's pretty obvious he is a fringe 1B and most likely a DH. The nagging injury could play a part in why he looks so bad defensively, but he is not very fluid in general and I am skeptical he will be even a fringe defender at first, which is a very large cap.

Finally, I was to summarize Berry through the lens of the new universal DH rule, and how this affects his overall value. In my opinion, there are two ways of utilizing the DH spot. The first is to use the standard Adam Dunn type masher as your DH. These guys have their value and make a lineup's run production higher, but they offer very little in terms of roster flexibility. The second option is to use the DH as a quasi load management tool, which requires more utility bats that are flexible enough to play two or three positions well. I prefer the later utilization because it allows for more robust roster management and rewards good player development and building depth in the minor leagues, even though there are some aspects of being a DH that may make players uncomfortable and negatively affect performance.

Since I prefer the second option for DH's, I will most likely have Berry lower than consensus, and more specifically, lower than teams that prefer the first option for DH. His lack of defensive value hurts him heavily, even though I do love his hit tool and believe he can hit for enough power. From a draft class/signing bonus pool point of view, Berry's cap adds a lot of variance that I want to avoid when spending a large amount of my bonus pool on a college hitter.