My biggest draft miss last year was Chayce McDermott, Ball State RHP, who was taken in the fourth round by the Astros. I was not satisfied by my evaluation and out of all the guys I saw in 2021, this was the player I did the worst on. Rather than wait on if he does well or not, I want to talk about what I did wrong, so I do not make this mistake in the future.
The issue comes down to misvaluing the overall package. He
has a plus fastball with carry and ride, plays in a ML bullpen. He spins his
curve well, but when I saw him he rarely had any feel to it. The shape was
there though, and I missed on that. He has all of the traits of a ML bullpen
piece, but I focused too much on the negatives and not enough on the obvious pluses.
In the future, I need to realize these types have a far greater shot at making
the majors than someone with 3 average offerings and “good” feel for them, and
value that correctly. This was a classic “picker” mistake, and even if
McDermott flames out in A ball it does not make my evaluation correct.
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